Osun State: 2011 should be AC’s concern

By Wale Adedayo

With the manner the issue has gone on thus far, I'll personally advise the Action Congress (AC) gubernatorial candidate, Alh. Rauf Aregbesola, to cease all legal fireworks concerning the disputed April 14, 2007 election, which the Tribunal has given to Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola. One is not a Prophet. But almost three and half years down the line out of a four-year mandate, even with a possible AC victory at the Court of Appeal, Oyinlola would have served out a full term.

It is also possible Oyinlola wins the appeal, that is, if Aregbesola insists on another round of legal battle. And given past experiences, this is very much likely to be so. I feel the AC should just go back to the drawing board and prepare better for 2011, which is around the corner. Against enormous odds, AC did very well in Osun State during the 2007 elections.

As it happened in Ekiti State, it fought a ruling party greatly assisted by a close affinity to Nigeria’s centre of power and patronage in Abuja. In addition, the party also fought a hand-to-hand political combat with former insiders, who because they were aggrieved switched sides to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), giving Oyinlola’s men enormous advantage in knowing some of the tactics and key personalities that AC deployed for the election.

Osun and Ekiti states give a bird’s eye view of the self-inflicted deep wounds given to majority of those who belong to the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s School of Politics. In-fighting drove a number of them into different political parties when the Alliance for Democracy (AD) and Afenifere were allowed to self-destruct.

The old guard Afenifere led by Pa Reuben Fasoranti has almost all its members in the Democratic Peoples Alliance (DPA). A number of those who followed these old men also joined the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). But those who believed in the Asiwaju Bola Tinubu-inspired Afenifere led by Senator Ayo Fasanmi went with Alhaji Atiku Abubakar into the AC. They formed the bulk of AD members as a number of them also joined the PDP, especially after the rancorous party primaries of the AC towards the 2007 elections.

AC’s nemesis in the South-West, especially Osun, Ogun and Ekiti states, is not the PDP or its core members, who are mainly conservative elements reminiscent of the Second Republic National Party of Nigeria (NPN). AC’s nemesis remains those who should naturally have been members of the party, but now belong to the PDP. They know AC members inside-out. Whether it is tactics, strategy or other things, these old AD members in PDP know how to contain their former colleagues.

And that is why kudos must be given to the AC members in both Osun and Ekiti states that despite the odds stacked against them – Abuja, incumbency factor and former colleagues working for the other side – they were able to stand tall with the number of seats they have in the Houses of Assembly in both states. It is a sure testament to political sagacity and acrobatic organisational abilities.

But despite all of the above, my advice remains. If the statesman attitude of former United States Vice President Al Gore is anything to go by, Aregbesola should adopt the same posture with moderation in that the AC should allow him to run without any stress of a challenger for the 2011 race. The interest of Osun State should be more paramount at this stage than individual or party interest.

Why? As long as the case continues to drag on, those at the helm of affairs in the state will definitely not be at peace irrespective of postures to the contrary. In our clime, ‘opposition’ elements within that polity will definitely pay for supporting ‘our enemies’. These would have had its debilitating effects on governance despite the brave face Oyinlola’s people have been putting up.

For a tenure that is less than one year to expire, I don’t see anything wrong in letting go, if only to ensure that appropriate lessons about why the 2007 loss happened have been learnt by the AC with a definite plan in place to make remedies. Winning almost 50% of Osun State was a feat by Aregbesola/AC using any known standard. It should be a veritable springboard for a 2011 rout of the PDP in Osun State.

Of course, it is possible that a campaign strategy has been built into this Tribunal cases towards sensitising the people of Osun State ahead of the 2011 elections. If that is the case, the matter should be continued. That is Ziggy raised to power something because with that, victory at the Tribunal is not envisaged, but positive PR generated from feelings of being cheated, which could galvanise the people to kick PDP out of Osun State next year.

Let me add an advice, which the Ogun State Governor, Otunba Gbenga Daniel, often gives to us in matters like these: “Whoever complains of being cheated after an election that he/she lost most likely deserves to lose. Don’t ever come to me with complaints from your area. I prefer that people complain about you than you coming here to whine about how badly you were treated and cheated. Let victory be your first and last thought. We don’t have plans for petition. Plan and work to win in your area. That is your duty.”

Aabo oro …